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Broker Commentary 30/07/12

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EGP EGP has informally discussed establishing a joint-venture high-roller service with rival casino group CWN should  the latter increase its holding in Echo to 25% AFR
CWN EGP has informally discussed establishing a joint-venture high-roller service with rival casino group CWN should  the latter increase its holding in Echo to 25% AFR
WDC preparing to expand its holdings of upmarket centres in Britain by investing an additional $4.51 billion into the country over the next few years The Australian
RMS Wattle Dam (WA) 10,965 oz fine gold produced for the quarter, 59,187t of underground ore mined for the quarter, 42,985t of ore milled at a head grade of 7.6 g/t, Total cash cost of $931 per oz produced, 250,000 oz production milestone reached. Mt Magnet (WA) 10,548 oz fine gold production for the quarter, 393,814t of ore mined for the quarter, 358,863t milled at a head grade of 0.95 g/t, Total cash cost of $1,551 per oz produced Company report
CTX Kurnell Closure long dated, transition risks and near term earnings volatility should prevent re-rating higher. We are not critical of the decision to close, as it protects shareholders from ongoing large losses. The business will likely continue to experience the volatility of refining earnings. There would also be transition risks, such as whether CTX would maintain mkt share. Citi
BHP BHBP bought the Fayetteville assets for $4.75bn in Feb 2011 and Petrohawk for $12bn + $3bn in debt in July 2011, when the spot US gas price was around $4.80-4.90mmbtu versus $3.00mmbtu today. We expect an impairment of US$3-5b for shale gas at FY 2012 results Citi
DML The Boseto copper processing plant is being commissioned with first copper-silver concentrate produced in June 2012. The company has commented that the project has been completed on time, and budget based on the August 2010 BFS. DML has mined and stockpiled ~635kt of oxide transition ore for commissioning. The Zeta underground DFS has been completed and confirms economic viability – with first decline scheduled in 4Q13. The capital estimate is US$26.8 mn and the project is designed as a 1.5mtpa operation over an 11 year mine life. DML plans to integrate this operation into the current open pit operation. Maiden Zeta underground ore reserves are 7.3Mt @ 1.3% Cu & 24.5 g/t Ag. Net debt was US$145.7 mn (GS: US$141.4 mn) with cash of US$59.3 mn and debt US$205 mn. JB Were
IGO IGO’s 4QFY12 result reflects continued good performance from Long Nickel mine, improved performance for the Jaguar/Bentley zinc operation and development of Tropicana gold project on time and within budget. Long Nickel (payable basis): 1.95kt Ni & 99t Cu @ A$4.08/lb (payable incl. royalty) versus GS 1.5kt Ni & 67t Cu @ A$4.81/lb. Jaguar/Bentley: 6.53kt Zn & 1.8kt Cu @ A$0.54/lb (payable incl. royalty) versus GS 5.45kt Zn & 2.53kt Cu @ A$0.32/lb. We note that disclosure for this operation has improved and is now consistent with the full disclosure that IGO report for Long. JB Were
OGC Production: 55.7koz Au. Sales: 53.7 kozs Au. Cash Costs: US$1029/oz Au. EBITDA US$25.6mn. The key variance to our estimates is the lower gold sales than production (timing issue only). The upside risk to our view is the timing around market realization of value in the Didipio project (which is currently under construction). The downside risk to our view is weak operating performance in NZ, which leads to lower earnings. JB Were
SFR SFR has commenced shipping the Direct Ship Ore (DSO) with 6.5kt of 34% copper shipped in May. Shipping of DSO will continue through CY12. Construction of the concentrator plant is on schedule for commissioning and 1st concentrate sales in 4QCY12. Currently SFR has 28kt of ore @ 4.9% copper on the ROM stockpile from underground development operations pending completion of the concentrator construction, which is now 86% complete. Total expenditure on the project to date of A$326 mn is within the budget. The company has cash of A$100 mn and debt of A$350 mn drawn (facility A$380 mn). SFR declared a maiden oxide reserve during the quarter of 1.04 mn t @ 2.3% copper. The company plans to complete a definitive feasibility study to commercialise this asset and supplement the sulphide project. JB Were
BKN FY12 guidance: We expect Bradken to deliver a FY12 NPAT result within its guidance range. Company guidance in FY12 is for NPAT of A$95 mn-A$102 mn and EBITDA of A$210 mn-A$220 mn. Update on GET roll-out: We also expect Bradken to provide an update on the global roll-out of its ground engaging tool (GET) product range. GET roll-out guidance update: Bradken recently noted that it is aiming to have 100% of its GET product range out to market by the end of FY13 and notably had 34% of this range out by late April 2012. Rail contracts: We expect that Bradken will have worked through the complications associated with the two rail wagon manufacturing contracts that prompted the recent downgrade to guidance. We do not anticipate any further write-downs on these contracts. JB Were
BDR After announcing a small delay to commissioning for the Tucano project, first ore to the mill is now expected in October. The project remains within budget. During the period, mining continued across a number of fronts and stockpiles now total 8.1Mt at 0.9g/t Au. On the iron ore front, construction of the magnetic separation plant started (due for commissioning in Dec-12) and negotiations for the iron ore Joint Operating Agreement continued. Iron ore stocks are now 0.9Mt at 40% Fe UBS
PEM Perilya has reported strong Jun-Q production from Broken Hill (BH) with 17.1kt Zn at cash costs of $0.54/lb (UBS-e 17.6kt at $0.61/lb). Cerro de Maimon also performed well with output of 2.7kt Cu at costs of $0.92/lb (UBS-e 2.8kt at $0.76/lb). Guidance remains unchanged at both sites. On the project front, development of the Silver Peak/Potosi mine continues, and the Moblan Lithium study is almost complete. Studies on Mt Oxide and Flinders indicate insufficient returns in based on current metal prices so activities have been scaled back. UBS
GRY Highlight of the quarter was 4.5Moz resource estimate upgrade at Banfora from 2moz. The upgrade included maiden Stinger resource of 9.5Mt @ 1.8g/t for 0.56Moz (prospect ~10km from the proposed plant). M&I resources 31.4Mt @ 2.2g/t for 2.2Moz at a 0.9g/t cut off. Inferred 25Mt @ 1.8g/t for 1.4Moz. Additional 0.93Moz comes from maiden inferred resource of 49.2Mt @ 0.6g/t for a potential heap leach operation. 90% of the mineralisation is at less than 150m depth and the deposits are open both at depth and along strike. In what we consider very prospective acreage, we expect the resource to continue to grow and 5moz is possible by year end from Stinger upgrade alone. DFS completion continues to be forecast for the second half this year. Management continue to target production by the end of CY14 (CS forecast MarQ15). In our view, funding remains the key issue for Gryphon with capex of potentially ~$300mn for a 3.5Mtpa plant producing ~200koz/pa, greater than its current market cap. Cash balance as at June 30 of $46mn. Credit Suisse
HVN We expect 4Q12 LFL sales to decline by 9.0% for Australia although anticipate furniture and bedding to continue to remain relatively strong. JP Morgan

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